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Disclaimer- The recommendations in this daily writeup & those given through accompanying online communication systems (i.e. through wireless, SMS, chat box, phone etc.) are only of advisory nature, based on the Technical Analysis of Stocks, a science which is time-tested, practised and accepted worldwide. Targets are generally achieved within few days or few weeks. For extreme short term speculative trading, always use STOP LOSS. Never trade in more than 3-4 scrips at a time and NEVER OVERTRADE. We do not accept any reward or liability for the consequences of financial decisions taken based on recommendations given in this writep & accompanying online communication systems through which we communicate our recommendations. VISIT OUR SITE www.kalpataru.org FOR YOUR COMPANY’S LATEST SCHEMES & YOUR VALUED SUGGESTIONS / FEEDBACK.

 
                

30- 07 - 2007  (Serial No. W – 532)

 

 

 

1)      ANTICIPATED HIGHS – LOWS FOR THE WEEK:  

 

 

NIFTY

SENSEX

HIGH

4,504 .55

 

15,437 .97

 

LOW

4,330 .81 – 4,375 .18

 

14,842 .54 – 14,994 .60

 

 

     

2) PRESENT STATUS OF THE MARKET AND FUTURE ANTICIPATION: Since the beginning of this month we have been discussing in weekly writeups as to from where an intermediate down correction can start and approx how much could be the correction and how long it is likely to survive – looking at last week’s action (after making new high indices have closed below the closing levels of preceeding 2 weeks and in the process have broken important minor support of 18th July 2007) – now if indices in this week close below 4,402 .57 & 14,962 .45 with black candles while closing in the lower half of the weekly candles then it would be almost confirmed that ‘Intermediate Down Move’ has started but still full & final confirmation would be when Sensex closes in any week below 14,850 .27 with black candle while closing in lower half of the weekly candle and under present setup anticipated lows of this week are 4330 .81 – 4375 .18 & 14,842 .54 – 14,994 .60 (lower levels seem likely) & when ‘Intermediate Sell Mode’ gets confirmed then         

                 FIRST DOWN TARGETS :     4275 .35 – 4321 .35 & 14,526 .44 – 14,663 .25

                    & after an inbetween rally

                NEXT DOWN TARGETS should be : 4090 .20 – 4179 .64 & 13,946 .99 – 14,270 .00  

 

                               It should be noted that if ‘intermediate sell mode’ is confirmed anytime then minimum present down move should continue till end Aug 2007 & could continue till 3rd week of Sept 2007; further it is to be noted that medium term / long term heavy support is likely to emerge in any case in last years closing / high range i.e. 3,966 .40 – 4,046 .85 & 13,786 .91 – 14,035 .30 in worst case scenario.

                               Coming to discuss as to whether present down move is an opportunity to accumulate for medium / long term players – YES IT IS – we anticipate that whenever coming ‘intermediate down move’ gets completed after that indices should cross recent highs of 4,647 .95 & 15,868 .85 anywhere before 31st Dec 2007 and could go upto 4,825 .00 & 16,500 .00; further we anticipate highs of 2008 to be above 5,275 .00 & 18,000 .00 which should be made anywhere in the first half of 2008 – only condition is that indices should close present year 2007 above the mid levels of the year which as of now works out to be 4101 .22 & 14,092 .47 (we will change our anticipation of next year 2008 having higher highs & lows than present year 2007 only if at present yearend Sensex closes below opening levels of 13,827 .77).

                           For medium risk takers we recommended heavy accumulation from levels 4167 .15 & 14,325 .92 in present year keeping in mind pessimistic down levels of 3,957 .15 – 3,976 .80 & 13,461 .07 – 13,799 .08.  

 

 

Coming to N.A.V. of our hypothetical online portfolio – KALPA SUPREME (which was started on 26th Oct 1998 with a nominal value of 100 units) – it has increased from 25711 .48 units as on 29th June 2007 to 26665 .33 units as on 27th July 2007, a monthly increase of 3 .71%.

 

 

3) Medium Term Trend (Intermediate): It has turned sideways.  Last week 188 scrips have closed lower as compared to 131 scrips in the preceding week (av. fall per scrip at 5 .25% is also higher than the av. fall per scrip of 4. 00% in the preceding week) & 41 scrips have closed higher as compared to 97 scrips in the preceding week (av. rise per scrip at 3 .99 % is also lower than the av. rise per scrip of 4 .58% in the preceding week) out of 250 scrips we follow regularly; last week’s A-D data is indicating that bears are dominating but in the past it has been seen that such heavy advance – decline ratios combined with large % fall lead to a reasonable short technical rally also.

 

 

4) Long Term Trend (Major): It continues up.

 

 

 

5)   REVIEW OF RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE LAST WEEK: Last week on the buy side 9 trades were recommended involving positions equivalent to 18 .75 % of the capital (11 .25 % on delivery basis) and profit / loss booking was recommended in 14 trades (which included 5 trades of earlier weeks) involving positions equivalent to 33 .85 % of the capital (23.05 % on delivery basis).          

 

                        In addition under the policy of ‘Sell First Buy Later’ 2 trades were recommended in ‘Nifty August Futures’ involving positions equivalent to 20 .00% of the capital & covering was recommended in both of the same trade involving positions equivalent to 20 .00 % of the capital.

                             

 

 

AVE POSITION PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 3 .37% of the capital (our target

                                                                                                                    is 5.00%).

AVE PROFIT PER BOOKED DEAL WORKS OUT TO BE = 2 .02 % (our target is 3. 00 %).

 

BOOKED PROFIT ON THE CAPITAL = 1. 09 % (our target is 2. 50%).

 

 

 

 

Present N.A.V. of our hypothetical online portfolio KALPA SUPREME (started on 26th Oct 1998 with a nominal value of 100 units) is 26665 .33 units as on 27th July 2007.